退化速率跟踪粒子滤波在剩余使用寿命预测中的应用

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好地解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化,并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

On lifetimes in random environments

For a component operating in random environment, whose hazard rate is assumed to be the realization of a suitable increasing stochastic process, conditions are found such that its lifetime is increasing in likelihood ratio (ILR). For the lifetimes of two components of the same kind some comparisons based on partial stochastic orders are presented. Some applications to the case of repairable components are finally provided. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 365–375, 1998     

锥形液膜的Kelvin-Helmholtz扰动波

为进行锥形液膜雾化过程分析,研究锥形液膜的Kelvin-Helmholtz稳定性问题,应用小扰动假设,建立了锥形液膜数学模型、轴对称扰动运动的控制方程和边界条件,采用分离变量法求解线性偏微分扰动方程组,经过严格的数学推导,得到了锥形液膜内外表面扰动波增长速率特征方程.当液膜锥角为零时,与环形液膜扰动波特征方程一致;当液膜锥角和液膜内径为零时,与圆射流扰动波特征方程一致,表明导出的锥形液膜扰波动方程是合理的.     

建筑构件的火灾危险性评估

火灾中,起火建筑的内部构件以及相邻建筑物的外部构件都要受到火灾高温及火焰热的作用。本文定量评估了威胁上述建筑构件的火灾因素．旨在为人们综合考虑采取合理的防火技术措施提供理论依据。     

对调频斜率极性捷变SAR欠采样转发干扰

针对传统欺骗干扰难以对调频斜率极性捷变SAR（chirp rate polarity jittered SAR, CRPJ-SAR）形成有效干扰，研究了对CRPJ-SAR欠采样转发干扰。通过建立CRPJ-SAR有限时长欠采样转发干扰信号模型，分析了欠采样转发干扰对CRPJ-SAR的干扰效果。给出假目标数目、位置以及幅度的理论计算公式。在此基础上讨论了欠采样周期对干扰效果的影响。利用数字仿真验证了理论分析的正确性。     

When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

装药长径比对EFP成型作用效果影响分析

针对装药长径比对EFP成型的影响,基于一种球缺型药型罩EFP,利用ANSYS／LS-DYNA仿真软件对其成型过程进行建模仿真,研究EFP成型过程及其各项参数．在该基础上,改变装药高度得到不同的装药长径比数据,并对不同长径比EFP形成过程进行仿真,得到不同装药长径比EFP的速度、速度增长率及炸药能量利用率等数据,为选择最佳装药长径比提供依据．     

基于删除平均的VI-CFAR检测器

针对MLVI-CFAR检测器在多个随机分布干扰目标背景下检测性能不好,以及OSVI-CFAR检测器在均匀环境和仅单滑窗存在干扰目标的环境下检测性能欠佳问题,提出了一种基于删除平均(CML)的VI-CFAR检测器(CMLVI-CFAR).仿真验证了CMLVI-CFAR检测器在均匀背景及多目标干扰环境下,都具有比MLVI和OSVI-CFAR检测器好的检测性能,并且其在杂波边缘背景下的虚警控制能力与前两者也基本一致,说明其在实际杂波环境中具有更强的鲁棒性和良好的应用潜力.     

Numerical investigation of the failure mechanism of cubic concrete specimens in SHPB tests

Cylindrical specimens are commonly used in Split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) tests to study the uniaxial dynamic properties of concrete-like materials.In recent years,true tri-axial SHPB equipment has also been developed or is under development to investigate the material dynamic properties under tri-axial impact loads.For such tests,cubic specimens are needed.It is well understood that static material strength obtained from cylinder and cube specimens are different.Conversion factors are obtained and adopted in some guidelines to convert the material strength obtained from the two types of specimens.Previous uniaxial impact tests have also demonstrated that the failure mode and the strain rate effect of cubic specimens are very different from that of cylindrical ones.However,the mechanical background of these findings is unclear.As an extension of the previous laboratory study,this study performs numerical SHPB tests of cubic and cylindrical concrete specimens subjected to uniaxial impact load with the validated numerical model.The stress states of cubic specimens in relation to its failure mode under different strain rates is analyzed and compared with cylindrical specimens.The detailed analyses of the numerical simulation results show that the lateral inertial confinement of the cylindrical specimen is higher than that of the cubic specimen under the same strain rates.For cubic specimen,the corners are more severely damaged because of the lower lateral confinement and the occurrence of the tensile radial stress which is not observed in cylindrical specimens.These results explain why the dynamic material strengths obtained from the two types of specimens are different and are strain rate dependent.Based on the simulation results,an empirical formula of conversion factor as a function of strain rate is proposed,which supplements the traditional conversion factor for quasi-static material strength.It can be used for transforming the dynamic compressive strength from cylinders to cubes obtained from impact tests at different strain rates.     

欠驱动关节机械臂位置控制研究

以具有欠驱动关节的水平两自由度机械臂为研究对象,研究当驱动关节达到指定位置后,以幅值和频率可调的驱动关节角速度信号为控制输入量来控制欠驱动关节的位置。用平均法对欠驱动机械臂的拉格朗日动力学模型进行了简化,并基于简化后的模型给出了闭环非线性反馈控制律。仿真结果表明,所设计的闭环非线性反馈控制率能够使任意初始位置的欠驱动关节趋近其指定位置。